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Comparing Two Relief Pitchers
Reflecting on Royals SS Jeff Bianchi
What are your thoughts on 2nd Rd. pick
Jeff Bianchi SS from KC ? He hit over .500 in high
school and was hitting over .400 in rookie ball when
he got hurt last year. Looks to me that he can move
quickly through the system with no real SS prospect
ahead of him.
Phil of Baseball Examiner:
While Rookie Ball
stats are often not very indicative of future success, Jeff
Bianchi did have a very nice debut in the rookie level Arizona
League. With him, the Royals didn’t go for just a signability
pick as they have so often in the past. Though there were still
many players left in the draft with more impressive skills, Jeff
is a solid talent. In the system there are several SS prospects
closer to the Majors but none with overwhelming skills.
As a hitter, Bianchi is advanced
for his age and has shown the ability to make contact and draw
walks. Listed at 6 ft and 175 lbs, Jeff does not posses
imposing size and likely will not hit for big power in the
majors. He likely will develop into a solid doubles hitter with
a good average, which is sometimes undervalued.
In the field, Bianchi is a solid
shortstop who will make all the routine plays. His arm and
athletic ability are just average which could mean a move to
second base down the road. Like most SS prospects he will
likely be given every opportunity to remain at short.
Bianchi will have his work cut out
for him. Because he does not have any one overwhelming skill,
he will have to prove himself at every level. He will likely
not be rushed with Angel Berroa still a few seasons away from
big money and a few defensive minded prospects ahead of him. In
the end Jeff’s performance will determine how he progresses and
he could end up with a career similar to David Eckstein.
Majewski of the Nationals and Chad Qualls. Which one would you pick in a
fantasy keeper situation.
Phil of Baseball Examiner:
Thanks Mel for your question.
These two pitchers are a nice comparison as they
pitched nearly identical innings and games.
Both are relatively young,
is 25 and
is 27. Both throw in the low
90s. Both have shown that
they can get batters out at the major league level.
So who would I pick? In
a keeper league I would take Chad Qualls and here is why.
First and probably most important is that fact that
Qualls is a ground ball pitcher and Majewski is more of a fly ball
pitcher. In 2005 Qualls had
a 2.48 ground ball to fly ball ratio while Majewski had a 1.23.
This is a good indicator of future success and I would want a
relief pitcher that is more likely to induce a double play over a guy
who is more likely to give up a sacrifice fly.
Secondly, Chad’s WHIP has been better throughout his short career.
Chad’s career WHIP is 1.22 while
Gary’s career WHIP is 1.40. This
is more an indicator of effectiveness than ERA where Gary
holds the edge in career ERA of 3.11 to Chad’s 3.36.
Speaking of ERA, in the end ERA is more a measure
of team and situational success than personal effectiveness.
This brings me to my final reason to choose Chad
over Gary. In 77 games,
inherited 41 runners allowing 11 or about 27% to score.
in 79 games inherited only 27 runners allowing 7 or about 26% to score.
While they both allow about the same percent of runners to score,
was setup with greater possibility of failure.
Taking this into account, Chad’s performance was better
than Gary’s despite a slightly higher ERA.
I think that both pitchers should have decent
careers in the Majors. But based on the numbers each have put up so far,
I think that Chad Qualls has the best chance to maintain his success as
well as the possibility of being even better.
GerbDude returns with more talk
about his Red Sox and "Manny being Manny"
Thank you Theo and Co. for
the worst weekend ever! The talk that Manny Ramirez might be traded was
as nervous as a Michigan vs. Ohio State football game (Nov. 19). Why
would you think about breaking up Big Papi and Man-Ram? He may have
asked but you tell him "ok, I will try" and just say to him "Manny, I am
still trying" and soon enough Manny will ask to stay. Even though you
never picked up a phone. They still might try to trade him in the
offseason and I understand the money Boston will save but you can't sign
.300-40-140. When I was watching Baseball Tonight and they said Manny
was pinch hitting I said to my self he was going to get the game winning
hit somehow. Manny did, than he went through the door in the Monsta.
After all it is Manny being Manny. Yankees Suck.
7/27/2005 -- Stephen
Head, 2005 2nd round pick of the Cleveland Indians
thoughts on Stephen Head's future with the Indians ? I
know he has Garko & Aubrey ahead of him but Garko seems
more like a DH and Aubrey is injury prone. Thanks,
Chuck: Thanks for your
latest entry, Steve.
Stephen Head is off to a
great start with his professional debut as a second round pick out of
the University of Mississippi. After hitting 6 homers in 37 at-bats with
a .432 average in Rookie ball, Head was promoted to a league more suited
for his level of competition. In his first two weeks at Kinston, in the
high-A Carolina League, Head has continued his success by hitting
.354/.404/.521 in 48 ab.
It's an interesting mix of 1b
prospects that the Indians have. Of course, Travis Hafner is their guy
right now. If he proves enough to them that he's their guy and the
Indians lock him up long-term, this discussion will be moot. However,
when arbitration time comes for Hafner and Cleveland has a viable option
with Ryan Garko (Triple-A), Michael Aubrey (Double-A) or Stephen Head,
Hafner could be made expendable for a cheaper route.
Head has good power, but
Garko's may be nearly as good or a touch better. Aubrey is a better pure
hitter than Head. But as Steve alluded to, Aubrey has missed time this
year and missed one-third of last season. Cleveland's first-round pick
in 2003, Aubrey has yet to remain healthy in either of his two full
I have skepticisms about what
Head may be as a big leaguer. I view his realistic high-end potential to
be similar to Ben Broussard. If he gets squeezed out and his bat fails
to demand its presence as a major league hitter, Head could turn out to
be a career cleanup hitter as a Triple-A veteran.
In my mind, Aubrey is my guy.
I'll give him the benefit of the doubt with his injuries. His quality
bat and defense earn my favor. But if Aubrey continues to have issues
with injuries or he fails to hit .300+ with at least 15-20 HR, the other
guys who offer more power could be more productive. In that case, it's
possible that Garko (from the right side) & Head (from the left side)
could offer Cleveland a platoon at the position until one of them proves
worthy of being put in the lineup every day.
7/25/2005 -- San
Diego Padres 2005 1st round pick, Cesar Carrillo
How fast do you think 18 pick
Cesar Carrillo will move up in the system and are there any sleepers in
the draft that I should look for?
Chuck of Baseball Examiner:
Thanks for your questions,
For those who don't know,
Cesar Carrillo was drafted 18th overall by the Padres in June. At the
University of Miami, Carrillo didn't suffer his first loss as a
Hurricane until the end of his college career. It is said of Carrillo
that he is rather polished and was assigned to high-A Lake Elsinore upon
In his first 3 starts,
Carrillo has a 14-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 12 1/3 innings with a
2.92 ERA. They're only letting him go about 4 innings per start, but
it's not due to ineffectiveness. He didn't pitch for several weeks
between Miami's exit from the NCAA Tournament until his professional
debut. With only about 5 weeks left in the minor league season, I expect
he'll remain at Lake Elsinore for the regular season. If Padres
management wants more innings out of him, Carrillo could pitch for any
affiliate that makes its league's playoffs.
It's possible that Carrillo
could start next year in Double-A, a rather advanced level for a
player's first full-season experience. Depending on his success and
advancement, a September callup for his major league debut is a
possibility. It's more likely that, if he remains healthy, a target of
mid-season 2007 could be when he joins the Padres staff for good.
Concerning any sleepers in
the draft, it's certainly difficult to know who will produce and advance
beyond the scouts' expectations. But I'll try anyway...
For sleepers from the Padres
draft class, keep on eye on 7th round pick Will Venable. He's got good
blood and good brains. His father Max was a major leaguer in the 1980s
and he has a Princeton education. The 22-year showed success against
mostly younger competition in 59 at-bats in Rookie ball but has
struggled in his first two weeks in short-season A Eugene.
Also watch the Padres' 6th
round pick, Neil Jamison, who was a closer at Long Beach St. Drafted as
a senior, Jamison will turn 22 next week. Though it's not expected that
he will continue to be a closer, he has been productive at Eugene and
could still be an effective set-up man in the big leagues. In 15 relief
appearances, Jamison has allowed 15 hits in 17 innings with an 18-7
7/13/2005 -- When
will Fernando Cabrera be Cleveland's closer?
Do you think Fernando Cabrera will be Cleveland's closer next year ?
I can't imagine them signing Wickman again. Thanks,
of Baseball Examiner:
Thanks for the question Steve.
Cabrera is probably in line to be Cleveland's closer next year, though
it might not happen until closer to the second half of 2006.
History shows that most closers are groomed in the bullpen at least a
year before they are put into the closer position. Also, with
Cleveland likely to be a contender entering the season, they may be
inclined to go with a veteran rather than take a risk on someone
unproven. It is still possible that they re-sign Wickman as well, though
he would probably have to take a large pay cut, to be the mentor for
with that being said, Fernando's second half could change all
that. He was lights out in AAA and has been strong in his first
few appearances in the Majors. If he proves that he is ready by
season's end and Cleveland has a hard time signing an inexpensive
veteran closer in the off season, the job could be his starting in 2006.
6/23/2005 -- Looking at the catching
situation with the Dodgers and Diamondbacks
Thanks for calling me a monster :-). What are your thoughts on the
LA & Arizona future catching situations ? Looks to me that Russ
Martin should be in LA within a year, am I correct ? Is Miguel
Montero as good as him numbers show or is he just a product of a
cozy Lancaster environment ?
of Baseball Examiner:
Thanks for the questions Steve.
Russ Martin is the catcher of
the future for the Dodgers and with the way he has been playing, the
future could become the present soon. As for being in the Bigs in a
year, it is very possible but not certain. Despite the catching at
the Major League level being less than desirable, LA has no reason
to rush Martin with Dioner Navarro ahead of him in AAA. Martin is
clearly the better prospect, however it is likely that the Dodgers
would promote Navarro first and allow Martin to progress through the
system. It would probably take a collapse or injury to Navarro and
strong performances by Martin for him to be the starting catcher
before the All Star break in 2006.
As for Arizona, their
catching depth is probably the best in the NL West. Their catcher
of the future for now is Chris Snyder who won the Big League
starting job over Koye Hill. Snyder, Hill and Phil Avlas were the
best the Diamondbacks had to offer entering the season but the play
of Miguel Montero may have changed that.
Off to a blistering start in hi A,
Montero has opened some eyes. With 21 homers to go with his .360
batting average, Montero has owned A ball an is ready for AA.
Montero, who will turn 22 in July, is not old for his
league but he is not young either. Also, entering this season
he had only played 115 games above rookie/short season ball.
With all that said it is hard to say if he is for real or just
benefiting from his surroundings. I would like to see him
carry his success to AA and on into next season before labeling him
a star prospect but his numbers so far are hard to ignore.
With continued success he could push his way into the Diamondbacks'
Comparing & contrasting the top college closers
available in next week's draft
I like your
contrasting the skills section. Could you please
compare & contrast Hansen, Devine & Cox ?
Steve is a Baseball Examiner
Reader Forum monster!
As part of our draft preview,
we compared and contrasted some
of the top prospects at certain positions where we compared the top
two catchers, the top two third basemen, a couple of the best college
shortstop prospects and the top two high school bats. We didn't cover
the top college closers. We will now.
Craig Hansen (St. John's),
Joey Devine (North Carolina St.) and J. Brent Cox (Texas) are widely
considered the top college closers in the 2005 draft. One thing that
college closers typically have in common is that it takes them less time
to groom in the minor leagues.
In 2003, three first round
picks were closers in college, Chad Cordero from Cal-St. Fullerton, Ryan
Wagner from Houston, and Rice's David Aardsma. Wagner and Cordero made
their major league debut before September had passed while Aardsma was
on the major league roster for Opening Day 2004. Last year, University
of Texas closer Huston Street was selected in the supplemental first
round by the A's and he began the 2005 season in their bullpen. The
first player to reach the majors from the 2002 draft was Kevin Correia,
a Giants fourth-round selection out of Cal Poly.
Anyway, this year's top
candidates for quick risers from college closer to major league bullpen
are Hansen, Devine and Cox. Let's take a closer look:
We'll start with Hansen
because he's the best of the three. His fastball ranks as one of the
best in the draft, touching 97 mph. His slider even goes in the upper
80s. He's said to have the great makeup required of a major league
closer. Teams could ask him to develop his changeup to in order to use
him as a starter, but that would slow his development. He should be a
top-10 pick in the draft, even been discussed as a possible option for
#1 overall because of his major league readiness. It seems like his
association with Scott Boras won't be as much of a factor as it would
for most of the other Boras advisees.
Devine's fastball is nearly
as effective as Hansen's. Baylor's Mark McCormick is the only starting
pitcher to surpass their radar gun readings, but McCormick has been much
more erratic and comes with more red flags of caution. However, Devine
comes with a red flag himself. His arm angle below three-quarters makes
his sweeping slider very effective, but the mechanics could be a concern
for scouts. Based on their primary two pitches, Devine's stuff doesn't
rank much below Hansen, but he doesn't have the third-pitch potential
like Hansen's changeup does. Expect Devine to go in the supplemental
Cox doesn't throw as hard as
either Hansen or Devine. His fastball at about 90 won't blow any major
league hitters away, but it does set up his best pitch which is a hard
slider. Cox is less likely to develop into a closer than the other two.
But nonetheless, Cox has legitimate stuff to soon be a big league relief
pitcher and should be a solid middle reliever or set-up man. He could go
as early as the supplemental first round or possibly the second round.
Dodgers 2b prospect Delwyn Young gets some props
from his cousin
Thanks for ranking my cousin Delwyn
Young in your top 2nd baseman prospects.
Let me give you some insight from
spring training in Vero Beach. The Manager and G.M. (Tracy and
Depodesta) had a meeting with him. They said, "kid, we know you
can hit". "Your bat can get you to the big leagues, but your
glove will keep you there". He told them that he used to pray
that the ball would not be hit to him, but now he feels much
more confident out there. They are always keeping a close eye on
him to see how his defense is developing. Also, everyday in
spring training I would show up and see either Jerry Royster or
Dave Anderson working out with Delwyn in the infield. Anyway,
spring training was a blast just witnessing all of this stuff
with him being on the 40 man roster.
Now he's in Jacksonville hitting
.288 with 8 homeruns, and he hasn't even gotten warmed up yet.
Also, his defense is greatly improved. Watch what he does the
2nd half after the all-star game. If he doesn't get traded, and
if the major league club keeps slumping, there is an outside
chance that he could get called up at the end of the year.
Elgin U. Young
Steve, a loyal Baseball Examiner reader,
inquires about some second base prospects
1) Do you
think the Angels 2B of the future will be Alberto
Kendrick or someone
thoughts on Josh Barfield's
demise and whether he's still considered
Loretta's successor ?
Chuck of Baseball Examiner:
Thanks for your latest
questions, Steve. We do this for people like you who are as interested
in following prospects as we are.
1) I'd say Alberto Callaspo
is the frontrunner for the Angels' second baseman of the future.
Callaspo was ranked #9 on our
Top 15 Shortstops
list before he returned to 2b at the beginning of this season. His range
and athleticism make him a very good defender. His bat control and speed
make him a possible 1 or 2 hitter in the lineup.
When making the
Top 10 Second
Basemen list, Howie Kendrick was only an honorable mention. He hit
for a ridiculously high average (.367) but his walk total of only 12 in
313 at-bats at low-A made me wonder if his approach at the plate would
get him overmatched at a higher level.. I wanted to see him duplicate
that kind of offensive output this season. He's hitting .373 in high-A.
I'm starting to think his offensive potential might be for real. But I
still see Callaspo as the ultimate answer. Besides, Callaspo will get
there first and it will be his position to lose.
A couple Angels shortstops
that may play a future role in the 2b picture include Erick Aybar and
Brandon Wood. At least one or both could be in the mix for possibilities
at second base or center field, if neither lands the shortstop job.
2) Though Padres' second
baseman Josh Barfield has been a bit disappointing, he's still
considered to have the best bat in the system. I think he can be a
decent big league hitter, but I don't necessarily think it will be as
Loretta's successor because I see him moving to left field.
Some of the reason for
disappointment in Barfield's bat is due to the fact that he tore it up
in the high-A California League in 2003, which is the most
hitter-friendly league in the minors. I think his great numbers
(.337/.389/.530) inflated his potential a bit as he followed it up last
year with .248/.313/.417 in Double-A and through 170 Triple-A at-bats
this season is hitting .247/.301/.341. Which year appears to be the
aberration at this point?
But at only age 22, he can
even repeat Triple-A next year to truly find himself as a hitter and
still be 24 as a big league rookie in 2007. So it's not hopeless for
Barfield yet. But I'm sure starting to be concerned.
Red Sox fan Gerb-Dude takes opportunity to crack
on Yankee fan
Don't you think it is funny
that when the Yanks don't play like a two hundred million dollar team
they are considered old and over the hill?
Watch, when they win eight
out of ten and A-Rod is not seeing Varitek's glove up close or running
with his arms "wildly" they are suddenly a veteran and experienced two
hundred million dollar team. Then Yankee fan will be back.
You have been warned!
TALLSICILIAN88 offers some NCAA Division II talk
year, 2 pitchers from the Pennsylvania State Athletic Conference (PSAC)
went in the 7th (Randy Dicken, Toronto) and 8th round Evan Englebrook,
Houston) from Shippensburg U. Each year this conference has a few
pitchers drafted fairly high. Best prospects this year are Lee
Maclintock (Shippensburg U) and lefty Blake Barbini (Lock Haven U).
Barbini plays on a sub par team in a tough confrence and has incredible
movement with his fastball and an unhittable changeup. He also has 8
pickoffs and has held batters to alow batting average. He has beaten
nationally ranked D2 powerhouses such as Cal of PA, Shipp U, Clarion,
and Indiana of PA. He lost to Regis U 3-2 in Florida holding them to 4
hits with 8k's.
some info on small college players for you....
What about Red Sox prospect Anibal Sanchez?
considered for your top 20 righthanders ? What's your
opinion of him.
Chuck of Baseball Examiner:
Good question, Steve. Since I
put together the righthanded pitchers list, I'll field (take the blame
for) this one.
I did consider Anibal Sanchez
when I was putting together the RHP list, though I didn't give him much
more than a passing glance. My reasoning at the time was that he didn't
have much of a track record for success. Sure, he did pitch very well
last year in the short-season-A New York-Penn League (76 IP, 43 H, 29
BB, 101 SO, 1.77 ERA), but he did so at age 20. It's still a bit young
for the NY-P considering all the former collegians who play at that
level, but with foreign-signed players it's difficult to get a good grip
on evaluating a guy's performance until he establishes a strong track record.
Even with American high
school players we at least know what the scouting community thinks of a
player as it relates to the draft. With the foreign born players, there
is no draft status to fall back on. And who really ever knows their true
age? So, it's easy to be skeptical of foreign-signed players in
short-season leagues until proven otherwise in a full season league.
Well, I'm being proven
otherwise. The first pitching line I saw from Sanchez this season
impressed me. The second dominating pitching line made me wonder if I
should have included him. With each awesome performance he continues to
put together, I'm more and more convinced that he did belong.
If I were to do the list
today, Sanchez would definitely be represented, likely around the 10-15
range. By the way, we do plan on revisiting our lists mid-way through
the season and evaluate how the players have performed this year and how
we might update our rankings.
In his first four starts this
season, Sanchez has allowed only 14 hits and one walk with 35 k's in 20
innings. And that's after skipping a level to high-A ball. He looks to be
on the fast track to the majors. And being a Red Sox minor league
pitching prospect, that likely means he'll soon be included in a trade
for a veteran. That's just the way the Red Sox do things.
Father of a Texas high school shortstop seeks
I found your list of the top 30 prospects and really enjoyed
the info shared. But where can I go to find out more info of
potential prospects, specifically high school guys?
My son is a shortstop from a high school in Texas. He is
being visited with several scouts and trying to get a feel
as we know nothing about nothing.
He has turned enough heads and have rec’d enough pro info /
player “Q” / medical info to muddy up the water. This idea
of answering “what round would you sign in?” is difficult
w/out knowing more about the draft itself.
Thanks so much.
Baseball Examiner's response
4/9/05 -- Tom M. silences boos for
3/27/05 -- Jim "Doc" Sabin picking up Big
lifelong Yankee fan, it is always wonderful to see Mr. Rivera come in
when the "game is on the line". This opening series with the
BoSox has made some Nyorkers anxious; ESPN has even gotten into the mix,
wondering if Mariano has finally reached his peak. Hey, let's all relax,
and not give General George any more anxiety than he already has: Rivera
is still "the guy". His two blown saves only makes us realize
that the league has more talent than ever, and that, yes Yankee fans,
the Red Sox are indeed for real: last year was just not a bad dream!
So, enjoy next week's series at Fenway: Mr Rivera still has a few
"quality saves" left in him.
Big Mac took one for the sport
There are some things in life that you just know you’re never going
to have to do.
I know, for example, that I’ll never have to worry about being
nervous in my first major-league at-bat. I know I won’t have to worry
about the media crush that comes with being the president of the United
3/3/05 -- Dwaine comes to
Griffey, Jr.'s defense
I just can't
understand why Chuck has to expect the worst on Griffey Jr. (see
"What's Up With Chuck", Feb. 26 entry). He is
one of the most likable people in the game. He always works hard to
rehab and then gets hurt because he is giving everything he's got. It
just doesn't make sense that Chuck would bash Griffey Jr. with his
sarcastic attitude toward his past injuries. There is nothing I
would enjoy more than seeing Griffey Jr. healthy and smiling again. He
is someone that obviously enjoys the game and plays hard everyday.
Reader Forum Archives